The 2025 Delhi Assembly elections have garnered significant attention, with exit polls suggesting a potential shift in the city’s political landscape.
After 27 years, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears poised to reclaim power in the national capital, challenging the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which has governed Delhi for the past decade.
These developments mark a pivotal moment in Delhi’s political history, reflecting evolving voter sentiments and the dynamic nature of Indian politics.
Here’s what the Exit Polls are saying this year:
| Exit Poll | BJP (likely seats) | AAP (likely seats) | Congress (likely seats) |
| Chanakya Strategies | 39-44 | 25-28 | 2-3 |
| Matrize | 35-40 | 32-37 | 0-1 |
| P-Marq | 39-44 | 21-31 | 0-1 |
| People’s Pulse | 51-60 | 10-18 | 0-1 |
| People’s Insight | 40-44 | 25-28 | 0-1 |
| Poll Diary | 42-50 | 18-25 | 0-2 |
| JVC | 39-45 | 22-31 | 0-2 |
Historical Context
The BJP last held power in Delhi in 1998. Since then, the city’s political arena has been dominated by the Congress Party until 2013, after which the AAP, under the leadership of Arvind Kejriwal, emerged as a formidable force.
The AAP’s rise was rooted in its anti-corruption stance and promises of improved public services, which resonated with a broad spectrum of Delhi’s populace. In the 2020 elections, the AAP secured a landslide victory, winning 62 out of 70 seats, while the BJP managed only eight.
This historical backdrop underscores the significance of the 2025 exit poll projections, which indicate a potential reversal of fortunes for both parties.
Exit Poll Projections
Multiple exit polls have provided varying predictions for the 2025 elections. According to data compiled by The Economic Times, the projections are as follows:
- Matrize: AAP: 32-37 seats; BJP: 35-40 seats; Congress: 0-1 seat.
- JVC Poll: AAP: 22-31 seats; BJP: 39-45 seats; Congress: 0-2 seats.
- Peoples Pulse-Codema: AAP: 10-19 seats; BJP: 51-60 seats; Congress: 0 seats.
- People’s Insight: AAP: 25-29 seats; BJP: 40-44 seats; Congress: 0-1 seat.
- P-Marq: AAP: 21-31 seats; BJP: 39-49 seats; Congress: 0-1 seat.
- Chanakya: AAP: 25-28 seats; BJP: 39-44 seats; Congress: 2-3 seats.
- Poll Diary: AAP: 18-25 seats; BJP: 42-50 seats; Congress: 0-2 seats.
These projections suggest a significant gain for the BJP, with most polls indicating a clear majority. Conversely, the AAP is anticipated to experience a substantial reduction in its seat count compared to the previous election.
The Congress Party, which once held sway in Delhi, continues to struggle, with exit polls predicting minimal to no representation in the assembly.
Factors Influencing the Shift
Several elements appear to have contributed to the BJP’s resurgence and the AAP’s challenges in this election:
- Anti-Incumbency Sentiment: After a decade in power, the AAP faces the natural political phenomenon of anti-incumbency. Voters often seek change after extended periods under a single administration, desiring fresh perspectives and solutions.
- Allegations of Corruption: The AAP’s image has been tarnished by recent corruption allegations. Notably, Arvind Kejriwal and other key party leaders were arrested on charges of receiving bribes from a liquor distributor. Although they have denied these accusations, labeling them as politically motivated, such controversies have likely eroded public trust.
- BJP’s Strategic Campaigning: The BJP has leveraged its substantial resources to mount an aggressive campaign, emphasizing development and governance. The party’s narrative has focused on providing a stable and corruption-free administration, resonating with voters dissatisfied with the AAP.
- National Political Climate: Despite losing its outright majority in the national parliament last year, the BJP, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has maintained influence by forming coalitions with regional parties. The party’s recent victories in two state elections have bolstered its momentum, contributing to its renewed appeal in Delhi.
AAP’s Response to Exit Polls
The AAP has dismissed the exit poll predictions, citing historical inaccuracies. Party spokesperson Priyanka Kakkar stated, “Exit polls have always proven to be wrong for the AAP.
We have always formed the government with a clear majority, and this time will be no different… There are some exit polls which show us winning, but I would like to tell everyone to wait for 8 February; Arvind Kejriwal will be forming the government with a huge majority.”
This skepticism is rooted in past experiences where exit polls underestimated the AAP’s performance. For instance, in the 2020 elections, several exit polls predicted a closer contest, yet the AAP achieved a decisive victory.
Congress Party’s Continued Decline
Once a dominant force in Delhi politics, the Congress Party has seen a steady decline over the past decade. Exit polls for the 2025 elections suggest that this trend is set to continue, with most projections indicating zero to minimal seats for the party.
This decline underscores the challenges Congress faces in reclaiming its former influence in the capital.
Looking Ahead
While exit polls provide an early indication of electoral outcomes, they are not definitive. The actual results, scheduled to be announced on February 8, will confirm whether the BJP’s anticipated comeback materializes or if the AAP manages to defy predictions and secure a third consecutive term.
Regardless of the outcome, the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections highlight the dynamic nature of the city’s political landscape. Voter preferences continue to evolve, influenced by factors such as governance performance, corruption allegations, and broader national trends. As parties analyze the results, they will need to reflect
