ATP Beijing Final Preview: Can Top-Ranked Sinner Finally Break Alcaraz’s Streak in Their 2024 Rivalry?
Jannik Sinner v Carlos Alcaraz
“I just hope tomorrow is going to be a good match from both of us,” Jannik Sinner said when asked about his China Open final with Carlos Alcaraz.
Judging by their form over the past week, there’s good reason for the Italian, and the rest of us, to hope that they can, on Wednesday, generate the electricity of their best showdowns from the past.
Alcaraz hasn’t lost a set in Beijing. That includes a pretty straightforward win over Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals. The Olympic hangover that laid Alcaraz low at the US Open has passed, and he hasn’t shown any ill effects from the long flight and quick turnaround after Laver Cup. Indeed, his first success in that competition may have reenergized him.
Sinner had a couple of potential speed bumps to get over at this event. On the one hand, he hadn’t played since winning the US Open three weeks earlier, so rust or a letdown seemed possible. Then he learned that WADA has appealed his recent doping exoneration with the goal of suspending him for one to two years.
As we saw in New York, one of his strengths is Sinner’s ability to shut out negative distractions once on court. In Beijing too, we’ve also seen another of his strengths: His nervelessness under pressure. Twice he was down a set, and twice’s he’s turned the match around immediately and in three.
All of which will leave the last between the two young players who have split four majors between them this season. One of these guys is going to be the men’s Player of the Year, and this meeting might have a lot to do with determining that honor.
Jannik is the best player in the world right now….As I always said, I really like the battles, the toughest match facing the best players in the world. So if I play against Jannik in the final, I will be happy.
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Both have reasons to believe they might have the edge. Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 5-4 and took both of their 2024 matches, in the Indian Wells quarterfinals and the semifinal at Roland Garros. However, Sinner won in straight sets the last time they met, in the Beijing semis a year ago. And Sinner is No. 1 in the world since June and riding a 16-match win streak, all on hard court.
I thought throughout that Alcaraz has a ceiling higher and a floor lower than Sinner does, and that remains true —though Sinner’s best is now almost as good as Alcaraz’s. One bright spot for Alcaraz was the way he recovered quickly from the trough of his level against Medvedev. He was broken two or three times in the first set, and on other days that might have given way to a long, error-filled rough stretch from him. This time he could break right back immediately.
Alcaraz owns a narrow 5-4 lead in his head-to-head with Sinner, having twice beaten the Italian in 2024—including in the semifinals of Roland Garros.
Alcaraz liked it too.
“I’m really happy that I didn’t lose my focus too long in the first set,” he said. “I recovered it as soon as I got broken, and I’m really happy that at the end of the set I was able to play really good tennis in the return game.”
The thing is, if Sinner is sharp, the best he can seem to be, then perhaps there isn’t going to be room for Alcaraz for him to have any slip or loss of focus whatsoever.
Sinner began his ascendence to No. 1 with a title-winning performance in Beijing last season. He’s again the world No. 1 and I will choose him to successfully defend that title. And as the Italian said, I will also hope that they can come together to make some of that old Sinnaraz magic along the way.
